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Messages - Steppenwolf

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621
Knowledge / Re: Economy According to Aesop.
« on: November 25, 2010, 11:12:48 PM »
Martin Wolf: the ants and the grasshoppers

Martin Wolf, one of my favorite economic commentators, recently wrote an update of the fable of the ant and the grasshopper (actually a cicada, but…) in the Financial Times.

Aesop

In the original story, attributed to Aesop, the ant works all summer to store up food for the winter while the grasshopper plays.  When the weather turns bad, the grasshopper asks the ant for aid.  He is rebuked for his idleness and left to die.

Wolf

In the Wolf version, there are industrious “ant” countries (China, Germany and Japan), which produce goods and export them to lazy “grasshopper” countries (like the US, UK and the PIGS) who dabble in activities like real estate, which by and large generate no economic return.  (that is:  if you build a factory, you can make stuff in it that you can sell at a profit.  If you build a beach house, it just sits there.  It’s like buying a very expensive home entertainment system.)

The grasshoppers get the money to do this by borrowing from the ants’ banks, using their real estate as collateral.

At some point, the ants figure out what’s going on and realize they’ve made a very bad deal.  The grasshoppers are never going to repay and the collateral is not particularly useful.  On occasion, the grasshopper economies weaken as real estate prices wobble and then fall.  Does the grasshopper government learn the folly of its ways?  No.  It simply lowers interest rates and borrows more from the ants to pump up the real estate market and keep the party going a while longer.

The ants help out because they don’t want to admit that they’ve made all these horrible loans.  So they end up throwing good money after bad.

In the Wolf fable, there are two sets of ants/grasshoppers:  Germany/rest of the EU, and China/EU + US.

me

I think the grasshopper/ant metaphor is a very useful way of framing the structural problems that the US and Europe face today.  In particular, it highlights the fact the Europe is in double trouble:  it’s China’s largest trading partner, and the EU faces the internal Germany/Greece dilemma as well.

I think the story needs a couple of nuances to make it a better reflection of today’s global economic situation, though.  For instance:

a post-WWII phenomenon

The first “grasshopper” was the US and the first “ants” were Japan and Europe.   The original relationship benefitted the US, of course, but it was also essential in enabling the rest of the developed world to rebuild after the destruction of their industrial infrastructure during WWII.  Two of todays ants were the initiators of this devastation.

After the fall of the Berlin Wall and the reunion of the two Germanys, that country faced enormous economic difficulties:  the west’s outdated plant and high-cost labor, the pitiful state of the east after almost a half-century of Soviet rule, and the consequences of the inflated exchange rate at which the merger was done.  So Germany really needed grasshopper counterparts to alleviate what would otherwise have been a decade of even greater misery.

not just good and evil

There’s a wider point.  Like the sadist and the masochist (maybe not the best analogy, but the only one I can come up with at the moment), the relationship may not be healthy but both sides do get something out of it.  The ants get technology transfer and the opportunity to radically raise their standard of living.  The grasshoppers get a chance to invest directly in the fast-growing ant economy.  They also get cheaper foreign-made goods.

China is a very unusual ant

For one thing, it’s much larger than any of the others.

It also doesn’t have the hangups of its fellow ants:  Germany’s commitment to make the one-Europe project work, and Japan’s history of extreme deference to the wishes of the US as a result of having lost WWII.

China gets what’s going on.

To me, it gives every indication that it thinks it has gotten all the value it can out of the grasshopper/ant dynamic and is determined to move on.  It has already started to convert its dollar foreign currency reserves into physical assets through foreign acquisitions by state-controlled companies.  Unlike Japan, which has never wanted the yen to be a world currency, China is taking steps to make the renminbi a vehicle of exchange among emerging countries.  It is also trying to grow its way out of its grasshopper problem by strengthening economic ties with other emerging nations.  China won’t thereby reduce the size of its problem of being a creditor to grasshoppers, but it may be able to reduce the significance of these liabilities if it can expand its trade in a healthier way with non-grasshopper nations.

http://practicalstockinvesting.com/2010/05/28/martin-wolf-the-ants-and-the-grasshoppers/

622
Knowledge / Economy According to Aesop.
« on: November 25, 2010, 11:11:23 PM »
The Ant and the Grasshopper

In a field one summer's day a Grasshopper was hopping about, chirping and singing to its heart's content. An Ant passed by, bearing along with great toil an ear of corn he was taking to the nest.

     "Why not come and chat with me," said the Grasshopper, "instead of toiling and moiling in that way?"

     "I am helping to lay up food for the winter," said the Ant, "and recommend you to do the same."

     "Why bother about winter?" said the Grasshopper; "We have got plenty of food at present." But the Ant went on its way and continued its toil.

     When the winter came the Grasshopper had no food and found itself dying of hunger - while it saw the ants distributing every day corn and grain from the stores they had collected in the summer. Then the Grasshopper knew: It is best to prepare for days of need.

623
Tech Lounge / Re: Cons and Pros of Technology
« on: November 25, 2010, 03:50:56 PM »
I think people in each decade have thought like this. If we look at the entertainment industry, with the invention of VCRs, the record companies said they were going to be driven out of business with piracy. Then with the invention of CDs, same was said, and then now again with mp3s.

The world continues with poor and rich. There is no way poverty will be eliminated, because if it is, the rich won't get the status of "rich", and so on.

The question is will we have anything to do it 50 years, or will some for of AI (artificial intelligence) take all our jobs. If we don't have a useful purpose, how will be even survive let alone get rich. No job = no income. Pretty simple equation I think.

I wasn't trying to ask are things going to be free, but hinting at the fact things will need to be free. But I'm glad there are still some Robin Hoods around for the more less fortunate.

624
Beauty Fashion LifeStyle / Re: See Men's trendy Hairstyles :p
« on: November 24, 2010, 08:59:13 PM »
Rock star , not emo.

yes emo... teenage girls :|

625
Tech Lounge / Re: Cons and Pros of Technology
« on: November 24, 2010, 07:38:14 PM »
Free.  :loll: Idk.

I look forward to that day.  8->

626
Knowledge / Re: Interesting Confusions :-/
« on: November 24, 2010, 07:23:32 PM »
vehleya ne hor ki karna...I feel like I should go for another degree :laugh: I can't do this work thing :hehe:

Yeah working sucks. But so does school.

Bas viah kra la.... its getting late.

627
Gup Shup / Re: Getting Along with others
« on: November 22, 2010, 07:50:20 PM »
But girls are definitely harder to get along with. I'll keep trying :P

Why? hmmmm... It just gets complicated I guess. Guys are easier to chill with. If a guys is has a bad day, you'll rarely hear about it. Few drinks and its forgotten. A girl requires more finesse.  :loll: I got skills though, nothing I can't handle.


628
Gup Shup / Re: Getting Along with others
« on: November 22, 2010, 07:48:33 PM »
i like cake  :superhappy:

ME 2!

I get along with both. Girls say I'm mysterious. So, I guess girls don't think so. :| Currently 3 really good friends, 2 guys and 1 girl.

Right now I need the best friend spot filled. Any takers?

629
Knowledge / Re: The best jobs in America.
« on: November 17, 2010, 09:35:17 PM »
Well, if you push the swizzle menu, the hottest becomes less relevant.

630
Knowledge / Re: The best jobs in America.
« on: November 17, 2010, 09:22:39 PM »

waiters can actually make up to 60-70 K annually, if working in a reputable hotel :pagel: Ofcourse, the hours are pretty extensive.

In this case you have to be pretty hot and offer an "extra special" menu for that kind of scratch. And your right about the hours.  :pagel:

I'm not sure what you meant by reputable. X_X

 :loll:

631
Gup Shup / Re: WHO SHOULD PAY?
« on: November 17, 2010, 11:06:54 AM »
I think i will pay full beocz he is out of money these dayz.... :( :hehe:

 :love:

632
Gup Shup / Re: pj user's kehra kam to jane jande aa
« on: November 16, 2010, 09:38:35 PM »
yeah u might be right.. for that we need to interact.. i guess.. :pagel: :pagel:  but i think u r kind of emotional guy n have good vocabulary..
if i have to tell about ur one quality then everyone knows u r known for ur Unique usernames.. :happy:

Rest What u like to show superficially that u r not internally.. i mean , u might not be Manic right now.. ya but u cud be Melancholic but to avoid that feeling u r convincing urself as Manic.. :) Dont mind ha?.. its seasonal n happening with everyone right now becoz of winter.. lol

am i emotional? :O lol

i'm manic... thats final!  :comeon:

633
Gup Shup / Re: WHO SHOULD PAY?
« on: November 16, 2010, 09:35:37 PM »
girl should... you girls need to show some initiative.  8->

634
Gup Shup / Re: pj user's kehra kam to jane jande aa
« on: November 16, 2010, 09:11:16 PM »
Simarriiiiiii.. my love.. :love: :love:.. She cud be wonderful psychologist.. can understand anyone's feelings with such a perfection.. Meri kaki.. :hug:

she can't figure me out.

635
Gup Shup / Re: pj user's kehra kam to jane jande aa
« on: November 16, 2010, 06:47:56 PM »
killa - Awesomeness!

 8->

636
News Khabran / Re: Students Riot in London Over Tuition Fee Rises
« on: November 13, 2010, 10:40:54 AM »
Is it the same anywhere else?

637
News Khabran / Re: Students Riot in London Over Tuition Fee Rises
« on: November 13, 2010, 10:39:01 AM »
It's funny how well controlled the media here in toronto is. I've been scanning the news for the last few days and only came across  one headline on this in the mainstream news. IE local news papers, news channels.

I guess it's in the code. When your boys image is getting tarnished, you squash the news and make new news. Abrkadabra! We're back in Iraq.

638
Gup Shup / Re: Few reasons to hate gandhi
« on: November 12, 2010, 12:35:03 PM »
I agree... socialists are bad for this world. Thank you.

639
Pics / Re: The idea does have some merit...
« on: November 12, 2010, 12:32:33 PM »
The geeky layer of NoXi is revealed  :love:

640
News Khabran / For your kids, is gifted a bad word?
« on: November 12, 2010, 12:18:24 PM »
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/family-and-relationships/for-your-kids-is-gifted-a-bad-word/article1795768/

For your kids, is gifted a bad word?

Toronto educators call it the “gifted blitz.” Every year at this time, about 1,500 Grade 3 public-school students in the city are invited to sit down for a battery of tests to determine their eligibility for various Grade 4 gifted programs next year.

Blitz is an apt term in more ways than one.

“It’s like it’s hurting them,” jokes Toronto mother Jennifer, whose daughter was assessed this week and has had stomachaches over it (she did not want her last name used).

It’s also an event that can explode a child’s current reality and change the course not only of their education, but their life. That blitz, and its counterparts across the country, will affect about 2 per cent of the student population. In Toronto, all children who meet the cutoff are accepted, then teachers are assigned accordingly.

And enrolment appears to be inching up. In Toronto, for instance, there are currently 3,822 kids in public-school gifted programs, up from 3,252 in 2007. Forty-one schools in the city offer them.

In the province, there were 27,653 gifted students in 2008-2009 – that’s 1.34 per cent of the 2,070,736 students enrolled.

Last year in British Columbia, there were almost 8,000 gifted students in the public system from Grades 1-12 out of a total of about 580,000. In Alberta, the rates are roughly similar: roughly 7,000 students out of about 556,000 in 2008/2009.

Gifted is a loaded term, something a parent is usually very proud of since it’s mostly about superior brain power. Many parents are driven to get their kids assessed. For some, the process is all about getting an edge for their bright child. But others worry that their kids will, paradoxically, fall behind as a result of being bored in the mainstream. There’s also the quest for like-minded peers and a setting that will give gifted kids an outlet for some of the quirky traits many exhibit, including severe perfectionism, a fear of failure or physical issues such as fidgeting.

It’s generally accepted that the earliest you can test for gifted is about age 8, but it varies cross-country. In some boards, such as the Calgary Board of Education, a child can be assessed at any time (although most formal gifted and talented programming starts in Grade 4). Vancouver kids will be assessed from January to March. Assessments generally include an intelligence test such as the Canadian Cognitive Abilities Test or the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children. There are also one-on-one psychological assessments, as well as parent and teacher input.

It’s all aimed at de-emphasizing the role of the IQ test, which has been maligned in recent decades. The notion of educating gifted children differently emerged alongside the budding field of intelligence testing in the early 20th century.

In the ensuing years, the definition has broadened from just cognitive ability to include a different learning style, emotional needs and thus a need for special accommodation. Hence (to complicate matters), gifted education is categorized in most regions as “special education” – along with various programs for children with disabilities such as deafness, language delays and learning challenges.

The gifted programs are so coveted by parents that there’s a thriving business administering private psychological assessments of children who either aren’t assessed at school or who just miss the cutoff. In most cases, parents have noticed early verbal, reading or math skills.

Private testing can cost more than $1,000 a pop. And the results are accepted as valid.

“Parents have had lots of signs and in most cases their intuition is good,” says Joy Reiter, a supervising principal of special education for the Toronto District School Board.

Eager moms and dads then grab the wheel and start driving. “Parents call us, desperate to sort something out,” says Martha Faulkner, the principal of Calgary’s Westmount Charter School for gifted children, which offers assessments in the spring. “We have more applications than we can accommodate.”

Calgary parent Ralamy Kneeshaw didn’t want to wait until Grade 4, so she worked to get her son enrolled at Westmount in Grade 3. “They don’t become gifted at Grade 4,” she says. Her son was enjoying some extra attention at his old school in a “pull-out” program once a week, but it wasn’t enough. “He was only gifted for an hour a week. He loved that. But then he had to go back to regular everyday life.”

Vigilant parents hunt for even enriched preschool experience. Thornhill, Ont., mother Georgia Cacoutis pulled her four-year-old out of a public junior kindergarten class because he wasn’t flourishing in the large classroom. She enrolled him in a new outpost of the international education chain Fastrackids, started in five countries in 1998, promoting intense school preparation with a focus on social and emotional skills.

Here, he spends five mornings a week in a more formal program, working with a giant digital interactive learning board and making class presentations.

“I was looking for something that would challenge his intellect,” she says, sitting outside the preschool classroom.

When the stakes are this high, parents who find out their children don’t make the cut can be devastated.

“It’s anxiety-provoking feedback for me to give,” says Revital Ben Knaz, a clinical psychologist who assesses children at Blue Balloon Health Services in Toronto. “Parents have all kinds of expectations and fantasies around the notion that their child is gifted.”

Tuesday night after her TDSB testing, Jennifer’s daughter ran to her and excitedly regaled her with the details.

“She said that her hands were clammy for about 30 minutes and the test was an hour. She seemed to be chatty with the psychologist,” she says. “She was really excited and kept saying that she really hopes that she can go into the gifted program. She was relieved because she was really nervous before.

“For her sake, I hope she gets into the program.”

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